(Courtesy of the Department of Water Resources) Welcome to another edition of the Environment Column and in this edition, we bring you the July-August-September (JAS) 2021 seasonal rainfall prediction from the Department of Water Resources (DWR). But before delving into the seasonal rainfall predictions from the DWR, readers are informed that the JAS 2021 rainfall season has commenced on time as exactly predicted by the DWR report. This year's rainfall started in the early hours of Tuesday, 9th of June 2021 at around 03.00hs and lasted for several minutes. The rains showers which have been classed as moderate by forecasters, was accompanied with lightning, thunder, but without strong winds. The downpours have affected almost all the areas of the country, with certain areas particularly the Western Region of the Gambia, receiving heavy showers and strong winds. Now we continue with the rest of the seasonal rainfall predictions for the country as provided by DWR, beginning with their introduction. The Department of Water Resources (DWR) has issued the July-August-September (JAS) 2021 seasonal rainfall prediction, as part of its responsibility of ensuring effective monitoring of the nation's climate and subsequent provision of the necessary weather advisories and early warnings to planners, decision-makers and operators in the various rainfall-sensitive socio-economic sectors. The sole aim of this effort is to enhance preparedness against climate hazards in the various sectors. As in the previous years, the prediction was based on the strong tele-connection between El Nino / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies over the Central Pacific Ocean (Nino 3.4 region) and Tropical North Atlantic Ocean and the rain bearing systems over The Gambia. On the inter-annual to seasonal time scales, the variability of sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific (El Nino / La Nina), tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans influence rainfall during the period July-August - September in West Africa and particularly the Sahel. 'La Nina' (or El Nino) conditions often coincide with the wet (dry) summer season over most of the Sahel. When the Gulf of Guinea is warm (or cool) during April-May-June-July, it is favourable for wet conditions (or dry) over the adjacent countries. When the tropical Atlantic is cold north of Equator and warm South of it (or warm in the north and cold in the south), it is favourable for dry conditions (or wet) in the Sahel and wet conditions (dry) over the Gulf of Guinea countries. The variations in sea surface temperature of the Indian Ocean influence rainfall over the eastern part of the Sahel (Chad, Sudan). Warming to the west of the Indian Ocean off the coast of east Africa is expected to favour a wet summer season over eastern Sahel. JAS 2021 Rainfall Prediction: For the coming July-August-September period, considerable variations in the amount of rainfall in the various places over the country are expected, as shown on the map below Annual rainfall amount is predicted very likely to be normal to likely below normal in the country. Most places in the country are however predicted to experience normal annual rainfall with the highest amount above 700mm expected in the western sector of the country. Amount in the range of 600 - 650mm are likely over the rest of the country. The predicted 2021 rainfall values would therefore be normal over large areas of the country. The latest figures indicate a 25% chance of above normal rainfall, 45% chance of near-normal rainfall and 30% chance for below normal rainfall. Put in simpler terms, this means that the chance of having normal rainfall is higher than the chance of having a below normal rainfall. Figure 1: JAS 2021 forecast rainfall Furthermore, it is worthy of note that the 2021 rainfall season is expected to undergo more variability than the 2021 season with events such as early to normal onset, late withdrawal of rains and long and medium dry spells. Accordingly, this department will undertake to provide weekly climate and short to medium range weather forecasts to better anticipate impacts of intra-seasonal climate events. Beginning of the farming season (Onset) In an agrarian economy like in The Gambia, where rain fed-agriculture is predominant, rainfall onset for the commencement of farming season is crucial. It affects establishment of crops, agricultural production and subsequently, national economies. Failure in the timely establishment of rainfall onset usually affects farmers. It is essential that, after a given date, the rain will become fairly continuous and sufficient to provide adequate soil moisture for and after planting is maintained as the season advances for successful establishment of crops. The early arrival of rainfall associated with monsoon is more likely than climatology over parts of the country. In 2021, The Gambia is expected to see rainfall onset between 9th June and 18th June as illustrated in f